The notion that Spanish foreign policy under Pedro Sánchez enjoys "wide support" is a comfortable narrative, but it hides a more volatile reality. While recent data suggests a majority of the Spanish public aligns with the government's "No to War" stance regarding the escalation in Iran and the ongoing crisis in Gaza, this consensus is not a blanket endorsement of the administration. It is a fragile alignment of convenience, born from a deep-seated historical skepticism of military intervention and a visceral reaction to the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
Sánchez has transformed Spain from a predictable middle power into a defiant outlier within the Western alliance. By refusing to meet NATO’s heightened 5% GDP defense spending targets and blocking the use of Spanish bases for U.S.-led operations in the Middle East, he has positioned Madrid as the "conscience of Europe." Yet, as the economy faces high unemployment and the government grapples with internal corruption scandals, the sustainability of this "principled internationalism" is under immense pressure.
The Mirage of Consensus
To understand the current Spanish mood, one must look beyond the simplified headlines of "popular support." According to the latest Elcano Royal Institute Barometer, while 75% of Spaniards support continued military aid to Ukraine, there is a sharp divergence when the focus shifts to the South.
The public’s "support" for Sánchez's foreign policy is often a proxy for something else: an aversion to being dragged into "American wars." This is not necessarily a vote of confidence in the Socialist (PSOE) platform, but rather a reflection of a national identity that still bears the scars of the 2003 Iraq War protests.
The "Sanchez Doctrine" rests on four pillars: coherence, commitment, cooperation, and creativity. In practice, this has meant:
- Recognizing Palestinian statehood despite friction with Israel.
- Implementing a total arms embargo on conflict zones in the Middle East.
- Refusing to bow to Washington on defense spending, even under direct threat of trade embargoes from the Trump administration.
The Morocco Complex and the Southern Threat
While the government focuses on "sensible internationalism" in the Middle East, the Spanish public is fixated on a much closer neighbor. Investigative data reveals a striking paradox: despite the government's efforts to portray Morocco as a strategic partner, 55% of Spaniards still view Rabat as a primary security threat—ranking it higher than Russia.
This "Morocco complex" stems from unresolved tensions over the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the management of migration flows. Sánchez’s pivot to support Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara was a gamble intended to stabilize the southern border. However, it remains one of the most unpopular moves of his tenure, alienating his junior coalition partners in Sumar and a significant portion of his own voter base.
Economic Growth as a Shield
Sánchez’s ability to maintain a defiant international posture is largely subsidized by Spain’s unexpected role as Europe’s "economic engine." With GDP growth projected at 2.9% for 2026—outpacing France, Germany, and Italy—the Prime Minister has the domestic capital to ignore "flaky friend" labels from NATO allies.
The strategy is clear: use economic success to justify a "progressive, ethics-based" foreign policy. By regularizing 500,000 undocumented migrants, the government is betting that a boosted labor force will sustain the welfare state, effectively turning migration policy into a tool of both economic growth and "soft power" projection.
The Trump Factor and the Risks of Isolation
The most significant test for the Sanchez Doctrine is the current standoff with the United States. Donald Trump’s threat of a "double payment" for defense or a total trade embargo is not empty rhetoric. Spain’s refusal to allow the U.S. Navy to use the Rota and Morón bases for strikes in Iran has pushed the relationship to its lowest point since the transition to democracy.
Sánchez is playing a calculated game. He is betting that the European Union’s Anti-Coercion Instrument will protect Spain from unilateral U.S. tariffs. He is also betting that the Spanish public’s distaste for Trump will outweigh their fear of economic retaliation.
However, this defiance comes with a cost. Spain risks being sidelined in the development of the "European Union of Security and Defence." While Sánchez calls for a "360-degree vision" of security, many Eastern European allies see his focus on the South and his reluctance to spend on conventional hardware as a betrayal of Atlanticist solidarity.
The Fragile Path Forward
The "wide support" for Sánchez is a mile wide but an inch deep. It is sustained by a combination of:
- Economic resilience that has so far shielded the average citizen from the costs of diplomatic friction.
- A polarized domestic media that frames foreign policy as a choice between "sovereignty" and "submission."
- The lack of a coherent alternative from the center-right People’s Party (PP), which struggles to balance its pro-NATO stance with the public’s anti-war sentiment.
As the 2027 elections approach, the "Caso Koldo" corruption scandal and the rising cost of living may eventually strip away the armor that has protected Sánchez’s international ambitions. For now, Spain remains a laboratory for a different kind of Western leadership—one that prioritizes international law and humanitarian principles over traditional bloc loyalty. Whether this is a blueprint for the future of the EU or a brief "socialist exception" remains the central question of European politics.
Monitor the upcoming NATO summit in June to see if Spain offers a compromise on the 5% spending target or doubles down on its Mediterranean priorities.
